Dear Portfolio Committee on Agriculture,

Policy Memo: Establishing a National Fertiliser Backup Strategy for South Africa

To: South African policymakers – Departments of Agriculture, Trade, Industry and Competition, Energy, and Transport
From: Concerned Citizen, Stacey van der Walt
Subject: Urgent need for a national backup fertiliser strategy
Date: 9 December 2026

South Africa’s food system remains highly exposed due to its dependence on imported fertilisers. The country uses approximately 2.2 million tons of fertiliser per year, with over 95% imported. In a world of rising geopolitical tension, this level of dependency represents a strategic risk to national food security.

Why a Backup Plan Is No Longer Optional

Global instability has shown that fertiliser supply can be disrupted with little warning. Conflicts, sanctions, energy shortages, or shipping disruptions can rapidly limit availability or make fertiliser unaffordable. These risks are external and not preventable by South Africa, but their impact can and must be mitigated.

Potential disruption scenarios include:

1. War or escalation in Europe, the Middle East, or Asia disrupting nitrogen, phosphate, and potash supply
2. Export bans or sanctions restricting fertiliser trade
3. Port congestion, rail failures, or global shipping shortages
4. Energy crises increasing fertiliser production costs

Without a backup plan, any one of these scenarios could disrupt planting seasons, reduce yields, and increase food inflation.

Core Problem

South Africa’s fertiliser strategy is built on assumed global availability. This assumption is increasingly risky. Food security failures will emerge faster and more visibly through fertiliser shortages.

Policy Recommendation: A National Fertiliser Backup Strategy

Government should urgently lead the development of a formal backup fertiliser framework, including:

1. Diversified fertiliser sources

Scale up organic fertilisers, composting, manure management, and crop residue use

Accelerate adoption of biofertilisers, biostimulants, biochar, and foliar feeding

2. Domestic and regional production buffers

Support local fertiliser blending and niche manufacturing

3. Strategic fertiliser reserves

Explore national or regional fertiliser stockpiles for emergency use

Prioritise staple crops and food security producers

4. Government-led fertiliser education

Expand extension services and farmer training on nutrient management

5. Scenario planning and stress testing

Regularly model fertiliser disruption scenarios

Integrate fertiliser risk into national food security and disaster planning

Conclusion

South Africa cannot assume that fertiliser supply will remain stable in an increasingly unstable world. War, geopolitical tension, and trade disruptions may not be preventable — but food system failure is. A national backup fertiliser strategy is not a contingency luxury; it is a strategic necessity.

By acting now, South Africa can protect farmers, stabilise food prices, and ensure agricultural continuity under global shock conditions.

Regards,
Concerned Citizen
Stacey van der Walt